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Just 22 electorates out of 151 across Australia are predicted to vote Yes to the referendum on Saturday, new analysis has revealed.

New analysis by UK firm focaldata, using advanced statistical techniques pioneered at the most recent Australian and British elections, reveals that just 22 out of 151 federal electorates are home to a majority of likely “yes” voters.

For the voice referendum to pass, it needs a majority across Australia, and four of the six states to also have a majority of Yes votes.

But this analysis reveals that the “no” vote could pick up as much as 61 per cent of the vote versus 39 per cent “yes”, greater than the most recent Newspoll, which put the split at 66 to 34 per cent.

In NSW, only a handful of inner city and suburban seats are expected to vote “yes”, while in Queensland, which is expected to come in heavily against the referendum Saturday night, only the inner-city seats are expected to vote “yes”.

But in regional Queensland, opposition is among the strongest anywhere in the country.

In South Australia, there is support for Yes in Adelaide, but it drops quickly outside the inner suburban seats.

A similar story is told in Victoria, where Melburnians in the seat of Melbourne are expected to overwhelming endorse the Voice by 64 per cent but support drops off rapidly as one moves away from the city.

Find out how your electorate is prediction to vote:

NSW/ACT

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Top three Yes electorates

Sydney – 70.4 per cent

Grayndler – 64.5 per cent

Canberra – 61.9 per cent

Top three No electorates

Calare – 72.3 per cent

Lyne – 72.2 per cent

Cowper – 71.9 per cent

Find out how your NSW/ACT electorate is predicted to vote

Queensland

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Top three Yes electorates

Brisbane – 57.2 per cent

Griffith – 52.6 per cent

Ryan – 50.6 per cent

Top three No electorates

Kennedy – 84.9 per cent

Maranoa – 81.5 per cent

Wide Bay 77.5 per cent

Find out how your Queensland electorate is predicted to vote

Victoria

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Top three Yes electorates

Melbourne – 64 per cent

Macnamara – 56.8 per cent

Wills – 52 per cent

Top three No electorates

Mallee – 77.1 per cent

Nicholls – 74.2 per cent

Gippsland – 73.5 per cent

Find out how your Victorian electorate is predicted to vote

South Australia

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Top three Yes electorates

Adelaide – 59.9 per cent

Hindmarsh – 49.7 per cent

Boothby – 49 per cent

Top three No electorates

Grey – 71.1 per cent

Barker – 69.9 per cent

Mayo – 61.5 per cent

Find out how your South Australian electorate is predicted to vote

Northern Territory/Western Australia/Tasmania

Top three Yes electorates

Clark (Tas) – 56.5 per cent

Perth (WA) – 52.9 per cent

Franklin (Tas) – 45.9 per cent

Top three No electorates

O’Connor (WA) – 75.7 per cent

Canning (WA) – 74.3 per cent

Forrest (WA) – 73.1 per cent

Find out how electorates in WA, Tasmania and NT are predicted to vote

Originally published as How every Australian electorate is predicted to vote

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By Rahul

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